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  Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Seneviratne, S. I., Wartenburger, R., Guillod, B. P., Hirsch, A. L., Vogel, M. M., Brovkin, V., Vuuren, D. P. v., Schaller, N., Boysen, L., Calvin, K. V., Doelman, J., Greve, P., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Krisztin, T., Mitchell, D., Popp, A., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Sillmann, J., Stehfest, E. (2018): Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376, 2119, 20160450.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450

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Seneviratne, S. I.1, Author
Wartenburger, R.1, Author
Guillod, B. P.1, Author
Hirsch, A. L.1, Author
Vogel, M. M.1, Author
Brovkin, V.1, Author
Vuuren, D. P. van1, Author
Schaller, N.1, Author
Boysen, L.1, Author
Calvin, K. V.1, Author
Doelman, J.1, Author
Greve, P.1, Author
Havlik, P.1, Author
Humpenöder, Florian2, Author              
Krisztin, T.1, Author
Mitchell, D.1, Author
Popp, Alexander2, Author              
Riahi, K.1, Author
Rogelj, J.1, Author
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich2, Author              
Sillmann, J.1, AuthorStehfest, E.1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.

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 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 8064
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: REMIND
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -

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Title: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 376 (2119) Sequence Number: 20160450 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1509235