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  Predicting the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) Hemiptera: Delphacidae) potential distribution under climatic change scenarios in India

Choudhary, J. S., Guru-Pirasanna-Pandi, G., Chemura, A., Basana-Gowda, G., Annamalai, M., Patil, N., Adak, T., Rath, P. C. (2021): Predicting the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) Hemiptera: Delphacidae) potential distribution under climatic change scenarios in India. - Current Science, 121, 12, 1600-1609.
https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v121/i12/1600-1609

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Choudhary, Jaipal Singh1, Author
Guru-Pirasanna-Pandi, Govindharaj, Author
Chemura, Abel2, Author              
Basana-Gowda, G.1, Author
Annamalai, Mahendran1, Author
Patil, Naveenkumar1, Author
Adak, Totan1, Author
Rath, Prakash Chandra1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) is the most serious pest in rice across the world. N. lugens is also known to transmit stunted viral disease; the insect alone or in combination with a virus causes the breakdown of rice vascular system, leading to economic losses in commercial rice production. Despite its immense economic importance, information on its potential distribution and factors governing the present and future distribution patterns is limited. Thus, in the present study we used maximum entropy modelling with bioclimatic variables to predict the present and future potential distribution of N. lugens in India as an indicator of risk. The predictions were mapped for spatio-temporal variation and area was analysed under suitability ranges. Jackknife analysis indicated that N. lugens geographic distribution is mostly influenced by temperature-based variables that explain up to 68.7% of the distribution, with precipitation factors explaining the rest. Among individual factors, the most important for distribution of N. lugens was annual mean temperature followed by precipitation of coldest quarter and precipitation seasonality. Our results highlight that the highly suitable areas under current climate conditions are 7.3%, whereas all projections show an increase under changing climatic conditions with time up to 2090, and with emission scenarios and a corresponding decrease in low-risk areas. We conclude that climate change increases the risk of N. lugens with increased temperature as it is likely to spread to the previously unsuitable areas in India, with adaptation strategies required.

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 Dates: 2021-12-032021-12-25
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: No data to archive
DOI: 10.18520/cs/v121/i12/1600-1609
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Asia
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
 Degree: -

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Title: Current Science
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 121 (12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1600 - 1609 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1805231
Publisher: Current Science Association