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  Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Tigchelaar, M., Timm, O. E., Ganopolski, A. (2016): Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming. - Science Advances, 2, e1501923.
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501923

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Friedrich, T.1, Author
Timmermann, A.1, Author
Tigchelaar, M.1, Author
Timm, O. E.1, Author
Ganopolski, Andrey2, Author              
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501923
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7328
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Long-Term Dynamics of the Earth System
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Title: Science Advances
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 2 Sequence Number: e1501923 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/161027