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  Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Jäger, F., Schwaab, J., Quilcaille, Y., Windisch, M. G., Doelman, J., Frank, S., Gusti, M., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Lessa Derci Augustynczik, A., Müller, C., Narayan, K. B., Padrón, R. S., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Wögerer, M., Seneviratne, S. I. (2024): Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways. - Earth System Dynamics, 15, 4, 1055-1071.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024

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Datensatz-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30151 Versions-Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30151_1
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11068957 (Ergänzendes Material)
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 Urheber:
Jäger, Felix1, Autor
Schwaab, Jonas1, Autor
Quilcaille, Yann1, Autor
Windisch, Michael G.2, Autor              
Doelman, Jonathan1, Autor
Frank, Stefan1, Autor
Gusti, Mykola1, Autor
Havlik, Petr1, Autor
Humpenöder, Florian2, Autor              
Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey1, Autor
Müller, Christoph2, Autor              
Narayan, Kanishka Balu1, Autor
Padrón, Ryan Sebastian1, Autor
Popp, Alexander2, Autor              
van Vuuren, Detlef1, Autor
Wögerer, Michael1, Autor
Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2024-01-042024-07-022024-08-152024-08-15
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 17
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Working Group: Land-Use Management
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Projektname : RESCUE
Grant ID : 101056939
Förderprogramm : Horizon Europe (HE)
Förderorganisation : European Commission (EC)

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Titel: Earth System Dynamics
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 15 (4) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1055 - 1071 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282
Publisher: Copernicus