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  Setting the tree-ring record straight

Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Büntgen, U., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020): Setting the tree-ring record straight. - Climate Dynamics, 55, 11-12, 3017-3024.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05433-w

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 Creators:
Ludescher, Josef1, Author              
Bunde, Armin2, Author
Büntgen, Ulf2, Author
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Free keywords: tree-ring · temperature reconstructions · harvest dates · long-term 21 persistence · Hurst exponent
 Abstract: Tree-ring chronologies are the main source for annually resolved and absolutely dated temperature reconstructions of the last millennia and thus for studying the intriguing problem of climate impacts. Here we focus on central Europe and compare the tree-ring based temperature reconstruction with reconstructions from harvest dates, long meteorological measurements, and historical model data. We find that all data are long-term persistent, but in the tree-ring based reconstruction the strength of the persistence quantified by the Hurst exponent is remarkably larger (h =∼ 1.02) than in the other data (h = 0.52 − 0.69), indicating an unrealistic exaggeration of the historical temperature variations. We show how to correct the tree-ring based reconstruction by a mathematical transformation that adjusts the persistence and leads to reduced amplitudes of the warm and cold periods. The new transformed record agrees well with both the observational data and the harvest dates-based reconstructions and allows more realistic studies of climate impacts. It confirms that the present warming is unprecedented.

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 Dates: 2020-08-312020-09-042020-12-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: Director Emeritus / Executive Staff / Science & Society
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: Director Emeritus Schellnhuber
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
Regional keyword: Europe
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05433-w
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
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Project name : 18_II_149_Global_A_Risikovorhersage
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Title: Climate Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 55 (11-12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3017 - 3024 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals77
Publisher: Springer