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  Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups

Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S., Aich, V., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Fader, M., Hoff, H., Jobbins, G., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Otto, I. M., Perrette, M., Rocha, M., Robinson, A., Schleussner, C.-F. (2017): Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. - Regional Environmental Change, 17, 6, 1623-1638.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2

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 Creators:
Waha, Katharina1, Author              
Krummenauer, Linda1, Author              
Adams, S.2, Author
Aich, Valentin1, Author              
Baarsch, Florent1, Author              
Coumou, Dim1, Author              
Fader, M.2, Author
Hoff, Holger1, Author              
Jobbins, G.2, Author
Marcus, R.2, Author
Mengel, Matthias1, Author              
Otto, Ilona M.1, Author              
Perrette, Mahé1, Author              
Rocha, M.2, Author
Robinson, Alexander1, Author              
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change. These biophysical impacts paired with other pressures and a lack of resilience in some countries cause high vulnerabilities within these sectors and for social dimensions in the MENA region. The agricultural sector, of which 70 percent is rain-fed, is highly exposed to changing climatic conditions. This is of critical importance as the agriculture sector is the largest employer in many Arab countries and contributes significantly to national economies. Impacts will be high in a 2 °C world, as, e.g., annual water discharge, already critically low, is projected to drop by another 15–45% (75% in a 4 °C world) and unusual heat extremes projected to affect about one-third of the land area with likely consequences for local food production. As a consequence, deteriorating rural livelihoods associated with declining agricultural productivity will continue to contribute to migration flows, often to urban areas as already observed. The region could be heavily challenged by both rising food and water demand given its projected increase in population that may double by 2070. As a result, the regions already substantial import dependency could increase and thus its vulnerability to agricultural impacts well beyond its country borders. A severe and sustained pressure on resources could contribute to further social unrest in the already unstable political environment that currently characterizes parts of the region. While the particular societal responses to such changes are hard to foresee, it is clear that extreme impacts would constitute unprecedented challenges to the social systems affected.

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 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7620
Research topic keyword: Security & Migration
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Regional keyword: Africa
Regional keyword: Asia
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Urban Transformations
 Degree: -

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Title: Regional Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 17 (6) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1623 - 1638 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals425
Publisher: Springer