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  No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards

Schauberger, B., Makowski, D., Tamara, B.-A., Julien, B., Ciais, P. (2021): No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards. - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 306, 108453.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108453

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 Urheber:
Schauberger, Bernhard1, Autor              
Makowski, David2, Autor
Tamara, Ben-Ari2, Autor
Julien, Boé2, Autor
Ciais, Philippe2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: Recent adverse weather events have questioned the stability of crop production systems. Here, we assessed the vulnerability of eleven major crops in France between 1959 and 2018 as a function of climate, crafting a novel hazard framework that combines exposure and sensitivity to weather-related hazards. Exposure was defined as the frequency of hazardous climate conditions. Sensitivity of crops was estimated by the yield response to single and compound hazards, using observed yields available at département (county) level. Vulnerability was computed as the exposure-weighted average of crop sensitivities. Our results do not reveal any evidence for historically increased vulnerability of French crop production. Sensitivity to adverse weather events, and thus the overall vulnerability, has significantly decreased for six of the eleven crops between 1959 and 2018, and shown no significant decline or remained stable for the other five. Yet compound hazards can induce yield losses of 30% or more for several crops. Moreover, as heat-related hazards are projected to become more frequent with climate change, crop vulnerability may rise again in the future.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2021-04-262021-05-152021-08-15
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: MDB-ID: yes - 3174
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Weather
Regional keyword: Europe
Model / method: Machine Learning
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108453
OATYPE: Green Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 306 Artikelnummer: 108453 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals15
Publisher: Elsevier