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  Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk

Ide, T., Brzoska, M., Donges, J. F., Schleussner, C.-F. (2020): Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk. - Global Environmental Change, 62, 102063.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063

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 Creators:
Ide, T.1, Author
Brzoska, M.1, Author
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Author              
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset.

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 Dates: 2020
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
eDoc: 8964
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Research topic keyword: Security & Migration
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Environmental Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 62 Sequence Number: 102063 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals193
Publisher: Elsevier