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  Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s)

Trauth, M. H., Asrat, A., Fischer, M. L., Hopcroft, P. O., Foerster, V., Kaboth-Bahr, S., Kindermann, K., Lamb, H. F., Marwan, N., Maslin, M. A., Schaebitz, F., Valdes, P. J. (2024): Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s). - Nature Communications, 15, 3697.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47921-1

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10624471 (Supplementary material)
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 Creators:
Trauth, Martin H.1, Author
Asrat, Asfawossen1, Author
Fischer, Markus L.1, Author
Hopcroft, Peter O.1, Author
Foerster, Verena1, Author
Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie1, Author
Kindermann, Karin1, Author
Lamb, Henry F.1, Author
Marwan, Norbert2, Author              
Maslin, Mark A.1, Author
Schaebitz, Frank1, Author
Valdes, Paul J.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The transition from a humid green Sahara to today’s hyperarid conditions in northern Africa ~5.5 thousand years ago shows the dramatic environmental change to which human societies were exposed and had to adapt to. In this work, we show that in the 620,000-year environmental record from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift, with its decadal resolution, this one thousand year long transition is particularly well documented, along with 20–80 year long droughts, recurring every ~160 years, as possible early warnings. Together with events of extreme wetness at the end of the transition, these droughts form a pronounced climate “flickering”, which can be simulated in climate models and is also present in earlier climate transitions in the Chew Bahir environmental record, indicating that transitions with flickering are characteristic of this region.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-05-072024-05-07
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 9
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47921-1
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
Regional keyword: Africa
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 15 Sequence Number: 3697 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature