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  Antarctica dominates uncertainty in projected land ice contribution to sea level rise this century

Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Smith, C. J., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Turner, F., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J.-H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O'Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Rückamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.-J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Breedam, J. V., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., Zwinger, T. (in press): Antarctica dominates uncertainty in projected land ice contribution to sea level rise this century. - Nature.

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25040 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25040_1
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Edwards, Tamsin L.1, Author
Nowicki, Sophie1, Author
Marzeion, Ben1, Author
Hock, Regine1, Author
Goelzer, Heiko1, Author
Seroussi, Hélène1, Author
Smith, Christopher J.1, Author
Jourdain, Nicolas C.1, Author
Slater, Donald1, Author
McKenna, Christine M.1, Author
Simon, Erika1, Author
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako1, Author
Gregory, Jonathan M.1, Author
Larour, Eric1, Author
Lipscomb, William H.1, Author
Payne, Antony J.1, Author
Shepherd, Andrew1, Author
Turner, Fiona1, Author
Agosta, Cécile1, Author
Alexander, Patrick1, Author
Albrecht, Torsten2, Author              Anderson, Brian1, AuthorAsay-Davis, Xylar1, AuthorAschwanden, Andy1, AuthorBarthel, Alice1, AuthorBliss, Andrew1, AuthorCalov, Reinhard2, Author              Chambers, Christopher1, AuthorChampollion, Nicolas1, AuthorChoi, Youngmin1, AuthorCullather, Richard1, AuthorCuzzone, Joshua1, AuthorDumas, Christophe1, AuthorFelikson, Denis1, AuthorFettweis, Xavier1, AuthorFujita, Koji1, AuthorGalton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.1, AuthorGladstone, Rupert1, AuthorGolledge, Nicholas R.1, AuthorGreve, Ralf1, AuthorHattermann, Tore1, AuthorHoffman, Matthew J.1, AuthorHumbert, Angelika1, AuthorHuss, Matthias1, AuthorHuybrechts, Philippe1, AuthorImmerzeel, Walter1, AuthorKleiner, Thomas1, AuthorKraaijenbrink, Philip1, AuthorLe clec'h, Sébastien1, AuthorLee, Victoria1, AuthorLeguy, Gunter R.1, AuthorLittle, Christopher M.1, AuthorLowry, Daniel P.1, AuthorMalles, Jan-Hendrik1, AuthorMartin, Daniel F.1, AuthorMaussion, Fabien1, AuthorMorlighem, Mathieu1, AuthorO'Neill, James F.1, AuthorNias, Isabel1, AuthorPattyn, Frank1, AuthorPelle, Tyler1, AuthorPrice, Stephen1, AuthorQuiquet, Aurélien1, AuthorRadić, Valentina1, AuthorReese, Ronja2, Author              Rounce, David R.1, AuthorRückamp, Martin1, AuthorSakai, Akiko1, AuthorShafer, Courtney1, AuthorSchlegel, Nicole-Jeanne1, AuthorShannon, Sarah1, AuthorSmith, Robin S.1, AuthorStraneo, Fiammetta1, AuthorSun, Sainan1, AuthorTarasov, Lev1, AuthorTrusel, Luke D.1, AuthorBreedam, Jonas Van1, Authorvan de Wal, Roderik1, Authorvan den Broeke, Michiel1, AuthorWinkelmann, Ricarda2, Author              Zekollari, Harry1, AuthorZhao, Chen1, AuthorZhang, Tong1, AuthorZwinger, Thomas1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted with ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor with coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using 100 multiple models, but mostly used previous generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models, and find that limiting global warming to 1.5°C since preindustrial would halve the land ice contribution to sea level rise this century, relative to 105 predictions for current climate pledges under the Paris Agreement: the median 4 decreases from 25 to 13 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to emissions scenario, due to competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing 110 the median land ice contribution to 42 cm SLE under current policies and pledges, with the upper end (95th percentile) exceeding half a metre even under 1.5°C warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained, adaptation must therefore plan for a factor 115 of three uncertainty in the land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2020-12-22
 Publication Status: Accepted / In Press
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: pending
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Regional keyword: Arctic & Antarctica
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
 Degree: -

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Project name : PROTECT
Grant ID : 869304
Funding program : Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (H2020-LC-CLA-2019-2)
Funding organization : -
Project name : PalMod
Grant ID : -
Funding program : (FKZ 01LP1502C and 01LP1504D)
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : -
Grant ID : WI4556/2-1 and WI4556/4-1
Funding program : Antarctic Research with comparative investigations in Arctic ice areas
Funding organization : DFG
Project name : PalMod
Grant ID : FKZ: 01LP1925D
Funding program : -
Funding organization : BMBF
Project name : GIS
Grant ID : WI4556/3-1
Funding program : -
Funding organization : DFG
Project name : TiPACCs
Grant ID : 820575
Funding program : European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program
Funding organization : -

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Title: Nature
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Publ. Info: London : Nature Publishing Group
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals353