Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor

Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13
2Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_29970

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Zusammenfassung: Temperature and precipitation variability and extremes impact production globally. These production disruptions will change with future warming, impacting consumers locally as well as remotely through supply chains. Due to a potentially nonlinear economic response, trade impacts are difficult to quantify; empirical assessments rather focus on the direct inequality impacts of weather extremes. Here, simulating global economic interactions of profit-maximizing firms and utility-optimizing consumers, we assess risks to consumption resulting from weather-induced production disruptions along supply chains. Across countries, risks are highest for middle-income countries due to unfavourable trade dependence and seasonal climate exposure. We also find that risks increase in most countries under future climate change. Global warming increases consumer risks locally and through supply chains. However, high-income consumers face the greatest risk increase. Overall, risks are heterogeneous regarding income within and between countries, such that targeted local and global resilience building may reduce them.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch

Datum: Eingereicht: 2024-01-05Angenommen: 2024-08-13Online veröffentlicht: 2024-09-13

Publikationsstatus: Online veröffentlicht

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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -

Inhaltsverzeichnis: -

Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung

Identifikatoren: Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01430-7
Working Group: Numerical analysis of global economic impacts
Working Group: Event-based modeling of economic impacts of climate change
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Inequality and Equity
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Sustainable Development
Model / method: Acclimate
Regional keyword: Global
OATYPE: Hybrid - Nature OA
MDB-ID: No MDB - stored outside PIK (see locators/paper)

Art des Abschluß: -

Projektname : Quantifying direct and indirect costs of climate-related hazards (QUIDIC)

Grant ID : 01LP1907A

Förderprogramm : Ökonomie des Klimawandels

Förderorganisation : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)

Projektname : Climate Impact Chains in a Globalized World: a Challenge for Germany (CLIC)

Grant ID : 01LA1817C

Förderprogramm : Ökonomie des Klimawandels

Förderorganisation : Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)

Projektname : Facilitating a Just Transition

Grant ID : -

Förderprogramm : -

Förderorganisation : Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH financial support by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH behalf of the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany and Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) (GIZ / BMZ)

Projektname : European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)

Grant ID : -

Förderprogramm : -

Förderorganisation : European Commission (EC)

Projektname : -

Grant ID : -

Förderprogramm : -

Förderorganisation : Ministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kultur (MWFK) des Landes Brandenburg

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Titel: Nature Sustainability

Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus

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Seiten: - Band / Heft: - Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-sustainability
Publisher: Nature

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