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  Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
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Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios.pdf (Verlagsversion), 5MB
 
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Luderer, Gunnar1, Autor              
Madeddu, Silvia1, Autor              
Merfort, Leon1, Autor              
Ueckerdt, Falko1, Autor              
Pehl, Michaja1, Autor              
Pietzcker, Robert C.1, Autor              
Rottoli, Marianna1, Autor              
Schreyer, Felix1, Autor              
Bauer, Nicolas1, Autor              
Baumstark, Lavinia1, Autor              
Bertram, Christoph1, Autor              
Dirnaichner, Alois1, Autor              
Humpenöder, Florian1, Autor              
Levesque, Antoine1, Autor              
Popp, Alexander1, Autor              
Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, Renato1, Autor              
Strefler, Jessica1, Autor              
Kriegler, Elmar1, Autor              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.

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 Datum: 2021-10-072021-11-25
 Publikationsstatus: Online veröffentlicht
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 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Carbon Pricing
Research topic keyword: Economics
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: REMIND
MDB-ID: yes - 3269
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Titel: Nature Energy
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: - Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: Publisher: Springer Nature
Anderer: 2058-7546
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/nature-energy