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  Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

Heck, V., Donges, J. F., Lucht, W. (2016): Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal. - Earth System Dynamics, 7, 4, 783-796.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016

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 Creators:
Heck, Vera1, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate system is approaching critical thresholds of atmospheric carbon, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how the degree of anticipation of the climate problem and the intensity of tCDR efforts with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a collateral transgression of the planetary boundary of land system change. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries only exist for a small range of anticipation levels and depend critically on the underlying emission pathway. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon-safe operating space under low-emission pathways, it is unlikely to succeed in a business-as-usual scenario.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/esd-7-783-2016
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7214
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: CO2 Removal
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 (4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 783 - 796 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282