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  Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

Pugh, T. A. M., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C., Olin, S., Schmid, E., Arneth, A. (2016): Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. - Nature Communications, 7, 12608.
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12608

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 Creators:
Pugh, T. A. M.1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Elliott, J.1, Author
Deryng, D.1, Author
Folberth, C.1, Author
Olin, S.1, Author
Schmid, E.1, Author
Arneth, A.1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

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 Dates: 2016
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12608
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
eDoc: 7246
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Communications
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 Sequence Number: 12608 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354