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  Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Harmsen, M., Fricko, O., Hilaire, J., Vuuren, D. P. v., Drouet, L., Durand-Lasserve, O., Fujimori, S., Keramidas, K., Klimont, Z., Luderer, G., Aleluia Reis, L., Riahi, K., Sano, F., Smith, S. J. (2020): Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation. - Climatic Change, 163, 3, 1443-1461.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02436-3

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Harmsen, M.1, Author
Fricko, O.1, Author
Hilaire, Jérôme2, Author              
Vuuren, D. P. van1, Author
Drouet, L.1, Author
Durand-Lasserve, O.1, Author
Fujimori, S.1, Author
Keramidas, K.1, Author
Klimont, Z.1, Author
Luderer, Gunnar2, Author              
Aleluia Reis, L.1, Author
Riahi, K.1, Author
Sano, F.1, Author
Smith, S. J.1, Author
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1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes.

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 Dates: 2019-07-172020-12-12
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02436-3
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
eDoc: 8511
MDB-ID: yes
Working Group: Energy Systems
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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 163 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1443 - 1461 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals80
Publisher: Springer