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  Quantitative evidence for leapfrogging in urban growth

Glockmann, M., Li, Y., Lakes, T., Kropp, J. P., Rybski, D. (2022): Quantitative evidence for leapfrogging in urban growth. - Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 49, 1, 352-367.
https://doi.org/10.1177/2399808321998713

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Leapfrogging_track_changes_2020-12-23_noblind.pdf (Preprint), 672KB
 
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Glockmann, Manon1, Autor              
Li, Yunfei1, Autor              
Lakes, Tobia2, Autor
Kropp, Jürgen P.1, Autor              
Rybski, Diego1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: Urban growth can take different forms, such as infill, expansion, and leapfrog development. Here we focus on leapfrogging, which is characterised as new urban development bypassing vacant land. Analysing a sample of 100 global locations, we study the probability that land cover is converted from non-urban to urban as a function of the minimum distance to existing urban cells. The probability decreases with the distance but in many of the considered real-world samples it increases again just before the maximum possible distance. Comparing these empirical findings with numerical ones from a gravitational model, we discover that the characteristic increase can be found in both. Our results indicate that the conversion probability as a function of the distance to urban land cover includes three urban growth domains. (i) Expansion of existing settlements, (ii) discontinuous development of coincidental new settlements rather close to existing ones, and (iii) leapfrogging of new settlements far away from existing ones. We conclude that gravitational effects can explain discontinuous development but leapfrogging can be attributed to a scarcity of developable land at long distances to settlements.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2021-01-272021-04-072022-01
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 16
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: yes - 3128
Research topic keyword: Cities
Research topic keyword: Land use
Regional keyword: Global
DOI: 10.1177/2399808321998713
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 49 (1) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 352 - 367 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/environment-and-planning-b
Publisher: Sage Publications