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  Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia

Chemura, A., Mudereri, B. T., Yalew, A. W., Gornott, C. (2021): Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia. - Scientific Reports, 11, 8097.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4

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 Creators:
Chemura, Abel1, Author              
Mudereri, Bester Tawona2, Author
Yalew, Amsalu Woldie1, Author              
Gornott, Christoph1, Author              
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1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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Free keywords: DEAL Springer Nature
 Abstract: Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience.

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 Dates: 2021-03-302021-04-142021-04-14
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
MDB-ID: yes - 3204
Working Group: Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Regional keyword: Africa
Model / method: Machine Learning
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-87647-4
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
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Title: Scientific Reports
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, OA
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 Sequence Number: 8097 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals2_395
Publisher: Nature