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  Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops

Donges, J. F., Lucht, W., Heitzig, J., Barfuss, W., Cornell, S. E., Lade, S. J., Schlüter, M. (in press): Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops. - Earth System Dynamics.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-27

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Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Autor              
Lucht, Wolfgang1, Autor              
Heitzig, Jobst1, Autor              
Barfuss, Wolfram1, Autor              
Cornell, Sarah E.2, Autor
Lade, Steven J.2, Autor
Schlüter, Maja2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: In the Anthropocene, social processes have become critical to understanding planetary-scale Earth system dynamics. The conceptual foundations of Earth system modelling have externalised social processes in ways that now hinder progress in understanding Earth resilience and informing governance of global environmental change. New approaches to global modelling are needed to address these challenges, but the current modelling landscape is highly diverse and heterogeneous, ranging from purely biophysical Earth System Models, to hybrid macro-economic Integrated Assessments Models, to a plethora of models of socio-cultural dynamics. World-Earth models, currently not yet available, will need to integrate all these elements, so future World-Earth modellers require a structured approach to identify, classify, select, and combine model components. Here, we develop taxonomies for ordering the multitude of societal and biophysical subsystems and their interactions. We suggest three taxa for modelled subsystems: (i) biophysical, where dynamics is usually represented by "natural laws" of physics, chemistry or ecology (i.e., the usual components of Earth system models), (ii) socio-cultural, dominated by processes of human behaviour, decision making and collective social dynamics (e.g., politics, institutions, social networks), and (iii) socio-metabolic, dealing with the material interactions of social and biophysical subsystems (e.g., human bodies, natural resource and agriculture). We show how higher-order taxonomies for interactions between two or more subsystems can be derived, highlighting the kinds of social-ecological feedback loops where new modelling efforts need to be directed. As an example, we apply the taxonomy to a stylised World-Earth system model of socially transmitted discount rates in a greenhouse gas emissions game to illustrate the effects of social-ecological feedback loops that are usually not considered in current modelling efforts. The proposed taxonomy can contribute to guiding the design and operational development of more comprehensive World-Earth models for understanding Earth resilience and charting sustainability transitions within planetary boundaries and other future trajectories in the Anthropocene.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2021-03-30
 Publikationsstatus: Angenommen
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.5194/esd-2018-27
MDB-ID: pending
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: Planetary Boundaries
Research topic keyword: Complex Networks
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Agent-based Models
Model / method: copan:CORE
Model / method: Open Source Software
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Earth System Dynamics
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: - Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282
Publisher: Copernicus