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  Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models

Odenweller, A. (2022): Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models. - Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 178, 121568.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121568

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 Urheber:
Odenweller, Adrian1, Autor              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Transforming global energy systems is critical for climate change mitigation and requires overcoming not only techno-economic, but also socio-technical hurdles. The main tools to analyse challenges in these two domains are integrated assessment models (IAMs) and transition theories or models, respectively. Despite a surging interest in integrative research that leverages complementarities in order to include social constraints into IAMs, both approaches are often confined to their own disciplinary background and practical integration studies of existing models are scarce. Here I demonstrate the feasibility of model integration by a bi-directional soft-link that merges the strengths of a neoclassical intertemporally optimising IAM with one global region, and a technologically and regionally highly resolved, evolutionary simulation model of S-shaped technology diffusion in the power sector. The new model iteratively converges to a stable equilibrium via two time-dependent coupling variables: carbon prices and renewable energy shares. The results for a 2 °C scenario show that due to gradual technology diffusion, energy transition challenges are exacerbated and incur higher economic losses. I discuss the potential of coupling existing models as an option to combine insights from different disciplinary perspectives to energy transitions.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-02-122022-03-072022-05
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 17
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121568
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Energy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Quantitative Methods
MDB-ID: No data to archive
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus
 Urheber:
Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 178 Artikelnummer: 121568 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: Anderer: 1873-5509
ISSN: 0040-1625
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/technological-forecasting-social-change
Publisher: Elsevier