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  The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., Hanasaki, N., Wada, Y., Burek, P., Byers, E., Müller Schmied, H., Gerten, D., Ostberg, S., Gosling, S., Boulange, J., Oki, T. (2022): The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change. - Nature Communications, 13, 3287.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2

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Satoh, Y.1, Autor
Yoshimura, K.1, Autor
Pokhrel, Y1, Autor
Kim, H.1, Autor
Shiogama, H.1, Autor
Yokohata, T.1, Autor
Hanasaki, N.1, Autor
Wada, Y.1, Autor
Burek, P.1, Autor
Byers, E.1, Autor
Müller Schmied, H.1, Autor
Gerten, Dieter2, Autor              
Ostberg, Sebastian2, Autor              
Gosling, S.N.1, Autor
Boulange, J.E.S.1, Autor
Oki, T.1, Autor
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-05-162022-06-282022-06-28
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 11
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: MDB-ID: yes - 3352
Model / method: LPJmL
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Regional keyword: Global
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Communications
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 13 Artikelnummer: 3287 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Springer Nature