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  Intensification of Very Wet Monsoon Seasons in India Under Global Warming

Katzenberger, A., Levermann, A., Schewe, J., Pongratz, J. (2022): Intensification of Very Wet Monsoon Seasons in India Under Global Warming. - Geophysical Research Letters, 49, 15, e2022GL098856.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098856

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 Urheber:
Katzenberger, Anja1, Autor              
Levermann, Anders1, Autor              
Schewe, Jacob1, Autor              
Pongratz, Julia2, Autor
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Zusammenfassung: Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June–September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965–2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050–2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2022-03-312022-07-192022-08-042022-08-16
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098856
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Security, Ethnic Conflicts and Migration
Research topic keyword: Monsoon
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Regional keyword: Asia
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
MDB-ID: pending
OATYPE: Hybrid - DEAL Wiley
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Projektname : Scholarship grant
Grant ID : -
Förderprogramm : Promotionsförderung
Förderorganisation : Heinrich-Boell Foundation
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Förderprogramm : DEAL
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Titel: Geophysical Research Letters
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
 Urheber:
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 49 (15) Artikelnummer: e2022GL098856 Start- / Endseite: - Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals182
Publisher: Wiley
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)