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  The dry sky: future scenarios for humanity's modification of the atmospheric water cycle

Keys, P. W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Moore, M.-L., Pranindita, A., Stenzel, F., Varis, O., Warrier, R., Wong, R. B., D'Odorico, P., Folke, C. (2024): The dry sky: future scenarios for humanity's modification of the atmospheric water cycle. - Global Sustainability, 7, e11.
https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2024.9

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 Creators:
Keys, Patrick W.1, Author
Wang-Erlandsson, Lan1, Author
Moore, Michele-Lee1, Author
Pranindita, Agnes1, Author
Stenzel, Fabian2, Author              
Varis, Olli1, Author
Warrier, Rekha1, Author
Wong, R. Bin1, Author
D'Odorico, Paolo1, Author
Folke, Carl1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Humanity is modifying the atmospheric water cycle, via land use, climate change, air pollution, and weather modification. Given the implications of this, we present a theoretical framing of atmospheric water as an economic good. Historically, atmospheric water was tacitly considered a ‘public good’ since it was neither actively consumed (rival) nor controlled (exclusive). However, given anthropogenic changes, atmospheric water is becoming 'common-pool’ (rival, non-excludable) or 'club’ (non-rival, excludable). Moreover, advancements in weather modification presage water becoming a 'private’ good (i.e. rival, excludable). In this research, we explore the implications of different economic goods framings using story-based scenarios of human modifications of the atmospheric water cycle. We blend computational text analysis with expert perspectives to create science fiction prototypes of the future. The economic goods framing highlights that social choices play an enormous role in how the future will unfold with regard to human interaction with the atmospheric water cycle. The narrative scenarios serve two purposes. First, they provide creative artifacts for the investigation of future interactions with the atmospheric water cycle, that are rooted in a scientific evidence base. Second, they articulate trajectories of our coupled social-hydrological world that require deeper interrogation and anticipation in the present.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-01-012024-03-202024-03-20
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 13
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
MDB-ID: pending
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
Research topic keyword: Atmosphere
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Global Commons
Research topic keyword: Land use
Research topic keyword: Weather
Regional keyword: Global
DOI: 10.1017/sus.2024.9
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Sustainability
Source Genre: Journal, Scopus, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 7 Sequence Number: e11 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/global-sustainability
Publisher: Cambridge University Press