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  Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., Nobre, C. A., Levis, C., Oliveira, R. S., Borma, L. S., Nian, D., Boers, N., Hecht, S. B., Steege, H. t., Arieira, J., Lucas, I. L., Berenguer, E., Marengo, J. A., Gatti, L. V., Mattos, C. R. C., Hirota, M. (2024): Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. - Nature, 626, 555-564.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0

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 Creators:
Flores, Bernardo M.1, Author
Montoya, Encarni1, Author
Sakschewski, Boris2, Author              
Nascimento, Nathália1, Author
Staal, Arie1, Author
Betts, Richard1, Author
Lapola, David M.1, Author
Esquível-Muelbert, Adriane1, Author
Jakovac, Catarina1, Author
Nobre, Carlos A.1, Author
Levis, Carolina1, Author
Oliveira, Rafael S.1, Author
Borma, Laura S.1, Author
Nian, Da2, Author              
Boers, Niklas2, Author              
Hecht, Susanna B.1, Author
Steege, Hans ter1, Author
Arieira, Julia1, Author
Lucas, Isabella L.1, Author
Berenguer, Erika1, Author
Marengo, José A.1, AuthorGatti, Luciana V.1, AuthorMattos, Caio R. C.1, AuthorHirota, Marina1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-01-242024-02-142024-02-15
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 25
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: pending
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: Biodiversity
Research topic keyword: Ecosystems
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Regional keyword: South America
Research topic keyword: Land use
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
OATYPE: Hybrid Open Access
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 626 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 555 - 564 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals353
Publisher: Nature