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  Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Klose, A. K., Donges, J. F., Feudel, U., Winkelmann, R. (in press): Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. - Earth System Dynamics.

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Item Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29682 Version Permalink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29682_2
Genre: Journal Article

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https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2023-20/ (Preprint)
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 Creators:
Klose, Ann Kristin1, Author              
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann1, Author              
Feudel, Ulrike2, Author
Winkelmann, Ricarda1, Author              
Affiliations:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

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 Abstract: The Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive-negative feedback loop governing their interaction (with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net-cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening) may determine the long-term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive-negative tipping feedback loop in a process-based conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: Herein, we distinguish between overshoot tipping cascades (leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC) and rate-induced tipping cascades (where the AMOC despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland). These different cascades occur within corridors of distinct tipping pathways that are affected by the GIS melting patterns and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its time scales. Our results suggest that it is not only necessary to avoid breaching the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2023-07-052024-03-07
 Publication Status: Accepted / In Press
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Working Group: Ice Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Ice
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
MDB-ID: yes - 3502
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Earth System Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/1402282
Publisher: Copernicus