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  Weaker Atlantic overturning circulation increases the vulnerability of northern Amazon forests

Akabane, T. K., Chiessi, C. M., Hirota, M., Bouimetarhan, I., Prange, M., Mulitza, S., Bertassoli Jr, D. J., Häggi, C., Staal, A., Lohmann, G., Boers, N., Daniau, A. L., Oliveira, R. S., Campos, M. C., Shi, X., De Oliveira, P. E. (2024 online): Weaker Atlantic overturning circulation increases the vulnerability of northern Amazon forests. - Nature Geoscience.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01578-z

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Akabane, T. K.1, Author
Chiessi, C. M.1, Author
Hirota, M.1, Author
Bouimetarhan, I.1, Author
Prange, M.1, Author
Mulitza, S.1, Author
Bertassoli Jr, D. J.1, Author
Häggi, C.1, Author
Staal, A.1, Author
Lohmann, G.1, Author
Boers, Niklas2, Author              
Daniau, A. L.1, Author
Oliveira, R. S.1, Author
Campos, M. C.1, Author
Shi, X.1, Author
De Oliveira, P. E.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon forest are viewed as connected tipping elements in a warming climate system. If global warming exceeds a critical threshold, the AMOC may slow down substantially, changing atmospheric circulation and leading to Amazonia becoming drier in the north and wetter in the south. Yet, the impact of an AMOC slowdown on Amazon vegetation is still not well constrained. Here we use pollen and microcharcoal data from a marine sediment core to assess changes in Amazon vegetation from 25,000 to 12,500 years ago. Additionally, we model vegetation responses to an AMOC slowdown under both glacial and pre-industrial conditions. During a past AMOC slowdown (Heinrich Stadial 1–18,000 to 14,800 years ago), pollen data evidence a decline in cold- and moist-affinity elements, coupled with a rise in seasonal tropical vegetation. This pattern is consistent with the decline in suitability of northern Amazon moist forests in a model with an imposed 50% AMOC weakening under glacial conditions. Our modelling results suggest similar changes for a comparable AMOC slowdown under pre-industrial conditions. Combined with current disturbances such as deforestation and wildfires elsewhere in the basin, an AMOC slowdown may exert a systemic impact on the Amazon forest.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2024-11-01
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: 15
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01578-z
MDB-ID: No data to archive
PIKDOMAIN: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: RD4 - Complexity Science
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Geoscience
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals355
Publisher: Nature