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Abstract:
The transition to more sustainable diets is critical to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and meet the Paris Agreement commitments. In China, this transition is particularly urgent due to the double burden of malnutrition and environmental degradation. In this study, we explored the potential of alternative diets in China to enhance public health, ensure food affordability and reduce adverse environmental impacts. We assessed these patterns through a multi-objective diet optimization model combined with an agro-economic modelling framework that captures key socio-economic and biophysical dynamics in China. The proposed healthy, affordable and low-environmental-impact diets substantially improve dietary quality and are projected to reduce food expenditures by 20–28% (US$128–186 capita−1 in power purchasing parities of 2005) by 2050. These diets also bring environmental benefits, including a 3–11% (4–13 Mha) expansion of non-forest natural vegetation area and modest biodiversity gains by 2050, a 9–40% (3–13 Gt CO2-equivalent) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a 5–12% (347–772 km3) decrease in freshwater withdrawals between 2020 and 2050. Our findings underscore the potential to achieve multiple co-benefits through long-term and target-oriented dietary transformations, while also balancing the transformation feasibility with achievable gains.
