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Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal

Authors
/persons/resource/schleussner

Schleussner,  Carl-Friedrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rogelj,  Joeri
External Organizations;

Schaeffer,  Michiel
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/tabea.lissner

Lissner,  Tabea
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Licker,  Rachel
External Organizations;

Fischer,  Erich M.
External Organizations;

Knutti,  Reto
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Levermann

Levermann,  Anders
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/william.hare

Hare,  William
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Schleussner, C.-F., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Lissner, T., Licker, R., Fischer, E. M., Knutti, R., Levermann, A., Frieler, K., Hare, W. (2016): Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. - Nature Climate Change, 6, 9, 827-835.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3096


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_20980
Abstract
The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways. We show examples of discernible differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming. At the same time, most available low emission scenarios at least temporarily exceed the 1.5 °C limit before 2100. The legacy of temperature overshoots and the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below, thus become central elements of a post-Paris science agenda. The near-term mitigation targets set by countries for the 2020–2030 period are insufficient to secure the achievement of the temperature goal. An increase in mitigation ambition for this period will determine the Agreement's effectiveness in achieving its temperature goal.