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Journal Article

A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly


Smirnov,  D. A.
External Organizations;

Breitenbach,  S. F. M.
External Organizations;


Feulner,  Georg
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lechleitner,  F. A.
External Organizations;

Prufer,  K. M.
External Organizations;

Baldini,  J. U. L.
External Organizations;


Marwan,  Norbert
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;


Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Smirnov, D. A., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Feulner, G., Lechleitner, F. A., Prufer, K. M., Baldini, J. U. L., Marwan, N., Kurths, J. (2017): A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly. - Scientific Reports, 7, 11131.

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21924
Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth’s climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000–1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.