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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Authors

Smith,  Steven J.
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Chateau,  Jean
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Dorheim,  Kalyn
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Drouet,  Laurent
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Durand-Lasserve,  Olivier
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Fricko,  Oliver
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Fujimori,  Shinichiro
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Hanaoka,  Tatsuya
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Harmsen,  Mathijs
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/persons/resource/hilaire

Hilaire,  Jérôme
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Keramidas,  Kimon
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Klimont,  Zbigniew
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/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Moura,  Maria Cecilia P.
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Riahi,  Keywan
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Rogelj,  Joeri
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Sano,  Fuminori
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van Vuuren,  Detlef P.
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Wada,  Kenichi
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Citation

Smith, S. J., Chateau, J., Dorheim, K., Drouet, L., Durand-Lasserve, O., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hanaoka, T., Harmsen, M., Hilaire, J., Keramidas, K., Klimont, Z., Luderer, G., Moura, M. C. P., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., Sano, F., van Vuuren, D. P., Wada, K. (2020 online): Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis. - Climatic Change.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24695
Abstract
The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.