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Journal Article

Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change

Authors
/persons/resource/Benedikt.Mester

Mester,  Benedikt
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/thomas.vogt

Vogt,  Thomas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bryant,  Seth
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/christian.otto

Otto,  Christian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe,  Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10038190
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

nhess-23-3467-2023.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Mester, B., Vogt, T., Bryant, S., Otto, C., Frieler, K., Schewe, J. (2023): Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change. - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23, 11, 3467-3485.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29017
Abstract
Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, often trigger population displacement. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are affected by anthropogenic climate change. However, the effect of historical climate change on displacement risk has so far not been quantified. Here, we show how displacement can be partially attributed to climate change using the example of the 2019 Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. We estimate the population exposed to high water levels following Idai's landfall using a combination of a 2D hydrodynamical storm surge model and a flood depth estimation algorithm to determine inland flood depths from remote sensing images, factual (climate change) and counterfactual (no climate change) mean sea level, and maximum wind speed conditions. Our main estimates indicate that climate change has increased displacement risk from this event by approximately 12 600–14 900 additional displaced persons, corresponding to about 2.7 % to 3.2 % of the observed displacements. The isolated effect of wind speed intensification is double that of sea level rise. These results are subject to important uncertainties related to both data and modeling assumptions, and we perform multiple sensitivity experiments to assess the range of uncertainty where possible. Besides highlighting the significant effects on humanitarian conditions already imparted by climate change, our study provides a blueprint for event-based displacement attribution.