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Journal Article

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review

Authors
/persons/resource/Nico.Wunderling

Wunderling,  Nico
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

von der Heydt,  A.
External Organizations;

Aksenov,  Y.
External Organizations;

Barker,  S.
External Organizations;

Bastiaansen,  R.
External Organizations;

Brovkin,  V.
External Organizations;

Brunetti,  M.
External Organizations;

Couplet,  V.
External Organizations;

Kleinen,  T.
External Organizations;

Lear,  C. H.
External Organizations;

Lohmann,  J.
External Organizations;

Roman-Cuesta,  R. M.
External Organizations;

Sinet,  S.
External Organizations;

Swingedouw,  D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann,  Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Anand,  P.
External Organizations;

Barichivich,  J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.bathiany

Bathiany,  Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Baudena,  M.
External Organizations;

Bruun,  J. T.
External Organizations;

Chiessi,  C. M.
External Organizations;

Coxall,  H. K.
External Organizations;

Docquier,  D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Falkena,  S. K. J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/klose.ann.kristin

Klose,  Ann Kristin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Obura,  D.
External Organizations;

Rocha,  J.
External Organizations;

Rynders,  S.
External Organizations;

Steinert,  N. J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/willeit

Willeit,  Matteo
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)

29036oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

Supplementary Material (public)
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Citation

Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C. H., Lohmann, J., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., Bruun, J. T., Chiessi, C. M., Coxall, H. K., Docquier, D., Donges, J. F., Falkena, S. K. J., Klose, A. K., Obura, D., Rocha, J., Rynders, S., Steinert, N. J., Willeit, M. (2024): Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review. - Earth System Dynamics, 15, 1, 41-74.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29036
Abstract
Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere, or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While un- certainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades can neither be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5–2.0◦C, nor on shorter timescales if global warming would surpass 2.0◦C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies forward combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.