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Journal Article

Forecasting forest-related political decisions in a climate-constrained world – The remuneration of forest ecosystem services in Germany

Authors
/persons/resource/dsprinz

Sprinz,  Detlef F.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schaefers,  Tabea V.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/freya.lLenk

Lenk,  Freya
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Krott,  Max
External Organizations;

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Citation

Sprinz, D. F., Schaefers, T. V., Lenk, F., Krott, M. (2024): Forecasting forest-related political decisions in a climate-constrained world – The remuneration of forest ecosystem services in Germany. - Forest Policy and Economics, 169, 103231.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103231


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30441
Abstract
Political systems are under increasing pressures to respond to the impacts of climate change. We employ a numerical policy negotiation forecast model and apply it to forest-related political decisions on remunerating forest ecosystem services. Our results predict that German forest carbon sinks will be partially remunerated by government payment systems as will nature conservation efforts and climate resilient forest management. Our predictions indicate that there is substantial remaining upward pressure on each of these issues to go beyond present regulations.