date: 2017-05-30T10:01:59Z
pdf:PDFVersion: 1.5
pdf:docinfo:title: Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)?South Asia Simulations
xmp:CreatorTool: LaTeX with hyperref package
access_permission:can_print_degraded: true
subject: Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan?s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006?2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 C; 2006?2099: 2.7/6.4 C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan?s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
dc:format: application/pdf; version=1.5
pdf:docinfo:creator_tool: LaTeX with hyperref package
access_permission:fill_in_form: true
pdf:encrypted: false
dc:title: Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)?South Asia Simulations
modified: 2017-05-30T10:01:59Z
cp:subject: Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan?s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006?2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 C; 2006?2099: 2.7/6.4 C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan?s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
pdf:docinfo:subject: Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan?s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006?2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 C; 2006?2099: 2.7/6.4 C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan?s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
pdf:docinfo:creator: Valentin Aich, Noor Ahmad Akhundzadah, Alec Knuerr, Ahmad Jamshed Khoshbeen, Fred Hattermann, Heiko Paeth, Andrew Scanlon and Eva Nora Paton
PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.14159265-2.6-1.40.17 (TeX Live 2016/W32TeX) kpathsea version 6.2.2
meta:author: Valentin Aich, Noor Ahmad Akhundzadah, Alec Knuerr, Ahmad Jamshed Khoshbeen, Fred Hattermann, Heiko Paeth, Andrew Scanlon and Eva Nora Paton
trapped: False
meta:creation-date: 2017-05-24T04:12:14Z
created: Wed May 24 06:12:14 CEST 2017
access_permission:extract_for_accessibility: true
Creation-Date: 2017-05-24T04:12:14Z
Author: Valentin Aich, Noor Ahmad Akhundzadah, Alec Knuerr, Ahmad Jamshed Khoshbeen, Fred Hattermann, Heiko Paeth, Andrew Scanlon and Eva Nora Paton
producer: pdfTeX-1.40.17
pdf:docinfo:producer: pdfTeX-1.40.17
dc:description: Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan?s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006?2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 C; 2006?2099: 2.7/6.4 C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan?s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
Keywords: climate change; Afghanistan; Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia; trend analysis; Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); growing season length (GSL)
access_permission:modify_annotations: true
dc:creator: Valentin Aich, Noor Ahmad Akhundzadah, Alec Knuerr, Ahmad Jamshed Khoshbeen, Fred Hattermann, Heiko Paeth, Andrew Scanlon and Eva Nora Paton
description: Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan?s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006?2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 C; 2006?2099: 2.7/6.4 C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan?s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
dcterms:created: 2017-05-24T04:12:14Z
Last-Modified: 2017-05-30T10:01:59Z
dcterms:modified: 2017-05-30T10:01:59Z
title: Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)?South Asia Simulations
xmpMM:DocumentID: uuid:8be672ed-67a5-4f15-9820-b2d1f1938b31
Last-Save-Date: 2017-05-30T10:01:59Z
pdf:docinfo:keywords: climate change; Afghanistan; Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia; trend analysis; Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); growing season length (GSL)
pdf:docinfo:modified: 2017-05-30T10:01:59Z
meta:save-date: 2017-05-30T10:01:59Z
pdf:docinfo:custom:PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.14159265-2.6-1.40.17 (TeX Live 2016/W32TeX) kpathsea version 6.2.2
Content-Type: application/pdf
X-Parsed-By: org.apache.tika.parser.DefaultParser
creator: Valentin Aich, Noor Ahmad Akhundzadah, Alec Knuerr, Ahmad Jamshed Khoshbeen, Fred Hattermann, Heiko Paeth, Andrew Scanlon and Eva Nora Paton
dc:subject: climate change; Afghanistan; Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia; trend analysis; Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); growing season length (GSL)
access_permission:assemble_document: true
xmpTPg:NPages: 26
access_permission:extract_content: true
access_permission:can_print: true
pdf:docinfo:trapped: False
meta:keyword: climate change; Afghanistan; Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia; trend analysis; Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); growing season length (GSL)
access_permission:can_modify: true
pdf:docinfo:created: 2017-05-24T04:12:14Z