date: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
pdf:PDFVersion: 1.5
pdf:docinfo:title: A Thought Experiment on Sustainable Management of the Earth System
xmp:CreatorTool: LaTeX with hyperref package
access_permission:can_print_degraded: true
subject: We introduce and analyze a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of anthropogenic climate change. In this exercise, each generation can choose between two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as the current one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyze this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics, and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Across these different approaches, we confirm the intuition that a focus on the long-term future makes the first option more attractive while a focus on equality across generations favors the second. Despite this, we generally find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches, suggesting a strong dependence on the choice of the normative framework used. This implies that policy measures selected to achieve targets such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals can depend strongly on the normative framework applied and specific care needs to be taken with regard to the choice of such frameworks.
dc:format: application/pdf; version=1.5
pdf:docinfo:creator_tool: LaTeX with hyperref package
access_permission:fill_in_form: true
pdf:encrypted: false
dc:title: A Thought Experiment on Sustainable Management of the Earth System
modified: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
cp:subject: We introduce and analyze a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of anthropogenic climate change. In this exercise, each generation can choose between two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as the current one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyze this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics, and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Across these different approaches, we confirm the intuition that a focus on the long-term future makes the first option more attractive while a focus on equality across generations favors the second. Despite this, we generally find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches, suggesting a strong dependence on the choice of the normative framework used. This implies that policy measures selected to achieve targets such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals can depend strongly on the normative framework applied and specific care needs to be taken with regard to the choice of such frameworks.
pdf:docinfo:subject: We introduce and analyze a simple formal thought experiment designed to reflect a qualitative decision dilemma humanity might currently face in view of anthropogenic climate change. In this exercise, each generation can choose between two options, either setting humanity on a pathway to certain high wellbeing after one generation of suffering, or leaving the next generation in the same state as the current one with the same options, but facing a continuous risk of permanent collapse. We analyze this abstract setup regarding the question of what the right choice would be both in a rationality-based framework including optimal control, welfare economics, and game theory, and by means of other approaches based on the notions of responsibility, safe operating spaces, and sustainability paradigms. Across these different approaches, we confirm the intuition that a focus on the long-term future makes the first option more attractive while a focus on equality across generations favors the second. Despite this, we generally find a large diversity and disagreement of assessments both between and within these different approaches, suggesting a strong dependence on the choice of the normative framework used. This implies that policy measures selected to achieve targets such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals can depend strongly on the normative framework applied and specific care needs to be taken with regard to the choice of such frameworks.
pdf:docinfo:creator: Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss and Jonathan F. Donges
PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.14159265-2.6-1.40.17 (TeX Live 2016/W32TeX) kpathsea version 6.2.2
meta:author: Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss and Jonathan F. Donges
trapped: False
meta:creation-date: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
created: Mon Jun 11 08:24:24 CEST 2018
access_permission:extract_for_accessibility: true
Creation-Date: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
Author: Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss and Jonathan F. Donges
producer: pdfTeX-1.40.17
pdf:docinfo:producer: pdfTeX-1.40.17
Keywords: decision dilemma; intergenerational welfare; time horizon; risk attitude; inequality aversion; fairness; responsibility; sustainability paradigms
access_permission:modify_annotations: true
dc:creator: Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss and Jonathan F. Donges
dcterms:created: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
Last-Modified: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
dcterms:modified: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
title: A Thought Experiment on Sustainable Management of the Earth System
Last-Save-Date: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
pdf:docinfo:keywords: decision dilemma; intergenerational welfare; time horizon; risk attitude; inequality aversion; fairness; responsibility; sustainability paradigms
pdf:docinfo:modified: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
meta:save-date: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z
pdf:docinfo:custom:PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.14159265-2.6-1.40.17 (TeX Live 2016/W32TeX) kpathsea version 6.2.2
Content-Type: application/pdf
X-Parsed-By: org.apache.tika.parser.DefaultParser
creator: Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss and Jonathan F. Donges
dc:subject: decision dilemma; intergenerational welfare; time horizon; risk attitude; inequality aversion; fairness; responsibility; sustainability paradigms
access_permission:assemble_document: true
xmpTPg:NPages: 25
access_permission:extract_content: true
access_permission:can_print: true
pdf:docinfo:trapped: False
meta:keyword: decision dilemma; intergenerational welfare; time horizon; risk attitude; inequality aversion; fairness; responsibility; sustainability paradigms
access_permission:can_modify: true
pdf:docinfo:created: 2018-06-11T06:24:24Z