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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Urheber*innen

Leclère, David
External Organizations;

Obersteiner, Michael
External Organizations;

Barrett, Mike
External Organizations;

Butchart, Stuart H. M.
External Organizations;

Chaudhary, Abhishek
External Organizations;

Palma, Adriana De
External Organizations;

DeClerck, Fabrice A. J.
External Organizations;

Marco, Moreno Di
External Organizations;

Doelman, Jonathan C.
External Organizations;

Dürauer, Martina
External Organizations;

Freeman, Robin
External Organizations;

Harfoot, Michael
External Organizations;

Hasegawa, Tomoko
External Organizations;

Hellweg, Stefanie
External Organizations;

Hilbers, Jelle P.
External Organizations;

Hill, Samantha L. L.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Jennings, Nancy
External Organizations;

Krisztin, Tamás
External Organizations;

Mace, Georgina M.
External Organizations;

Ohashi, Haruka
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Purvis, Andy
External Organizations;

Schipper, Aafke M.
External Organizations;

Tabeau, Andrzej
External Organizations;

Valin, Hugo
External Organizations;

van Meijl, Hans
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van Zeist, Willem-Jan
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Visconti, Piero
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Alkemade, Rob
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Almond, Rosamunde
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Bunting, Gill
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Burgess, Neil D.
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Cornell, Sarah E.
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Fulvio, Fulvio Di
External Organizations;

Ferrier, Simon
External Organizations;

Fritz, Steffen
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Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Grooten, Monique
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Harwood, Thomas
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Havlík, Petr
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Herrero, Mario
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Hoskins, Andrew J.
External Organizations;

Jung, Martin
External Organizations;

Kram, Tom
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Matsui, Tetsuya
External Organizations;

Meyer, Carsten
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Nel, Deon
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Newbold, Tim
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Schmidt-Traub, Guido
External Organizations;

Stehfest, Elke
External Organizations;

Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Ware, Chris
External Organizations;

Watson, James E. M.
External Organizations;

Wu, Wenchao
External Organizations;

Young, Lucy
External Organizations;

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Zitation

Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S. H. M., Chaudhary, A., Palma, A. D., DeClerck, F. A. J., Marco, M. D., Doelman, J. C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J. P., Hill, S. L. L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G. M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A. M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N. D., Cornell, S. E., Fulvio, F. D., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A. J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B. B. N., van Vuuren, D. P., Ware, C., Watson, J. E. M., Wu, W., Young, L. (2020): Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy. - Nature, 585, 7826, 551-556.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y

Zusammenfassung

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.