date: 2025-09-12T15:43:53Z
pdf:PDFVersion: 1.5
pdf:docinfo:title: Bio-Ecological Indicators for Gentiana pneumonanthe L. Climatic Suitability in the Iberian Peninsula
xmp:CreatorTool: LaTeX with hyperref
access_permission:can_print_degraded: true
subject: Gentiana pneumonanthe L., a wetland specialist and exclusive host of the Alcon Blue (Phengaris alcon), is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study assessed the future climate suitability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for G. pneumonanthe. From 14 bioclimatic variables (ISIMIP3b, processed by CHELSA method at 1 km2) and two topographic variables, four bio-ecological indicators were selected using Pearson correlation and Variance Inflation Factors: Thermicity Index, Ombrothermic Index, Accumulated summer precipitation from June to August, and Maximum of the daily maximum temperature of August. A species distribution model platform (Biomod2) was applied for historical (1995?2014) and future periods (2041?2060, 2081?2100) under two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The ensemble model created shows a strong predictive performance (BOYCE: 0.98). Historically, 13.4% of the IP was climatically suitable, mainly in mountain areas. Under SSP3-7.0, suitable areas are projected to decline by 74.2% (2041?2060) and 99.3% (2081?2100); under SSP5-8.5, by 75.5% and 99.9%, respectively. While small gains may occur in the Pyrenees, most conservation protected areas (Natura 2000, RAMSAR) may lose suitability for species persistence. Such losses could disrupt ecological ecosystems and directly threaten the survival of P. alcon. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed land-use planning and effective habitat conservation.
dc:format: application/pdf; version=1.5
pdf:docinfo:creator_tool: LaTeX with hyperref
access_permission:fill_in_form: true
pdf:encrypted: false
dc:title: Bio-Ecological Indicators for Gentiana pneumonanthe L. Climatic Suitability in the Iberian Peninsula
modified: 2025-09-12T15:43:53Z
cp:subject: Gentiana pneumonanthe L., a wetland specialist and exclusive host of the Alcon Blue (Phengaris alcon), is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study assessed the future climate suitability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for G. pneumonanthe. From 14 bioclimatic variables (ISIMIP3b, processed by CHELSA method at 1 km2) and two topographic variables, four bio-ecological indicators were selected using Pearson correlation and Variance Inflation Factors: Thermicity Index, Ombrothermic Index, Accumulated summer precipitation from June to August, and Maximum of the daily maximum temperature of August. A species distribution model platform (Biomod2) was applied for historical (1995?2014) and future periods (2041?2060, 2081?2100) under two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The ensemble model created shows a strong predictive performance (BOYCE: 0.98). Historically, 13.4% of the IP was climatically suitable, mainly in mountain areas. Under SSP3-7.0, suitable areas are projected to decline by 74.2% (2041?2060) and 99.3% (2081?2100); under SSP5-8.5, by 75.5% and 99.9%, respectively. While small gains may occur in the Pyrenees, most conservation protected areas (Natura 2000, RAMSAR) may lose suitability for species persistence. Such losses could disrupt ecological ecosystems and directly threaten the survival of P. alcon. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed land-use planning and effective habitat conservation.
pdf:docinfo:subject: Gentiana pneumonanthe L., a wetland specialist and exclusive host of the Alcon Blue (Phengaris alcon), is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study assessed the future climate suitability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for G. pneumonanthe. From 14 bioclimatic variables (ISIMIP3b, processed by CHELSA method at 1 km2) and two topographic variables, four bio-ecological indicators were selected using Pearson correlation and Variance Inflation Factors: Thermicity Index, Ombrothermic Index, Accumulated summer precipitation from June to August, and Maximum of the daily maximum temperature of August. A species distribution model platform (Biomod2) was applied for historical (1995?2014) and future periods (2041?2060, 2081?2100) under two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The ensemble model created shows a strong predictive performance (BOYCE: 0.98). Historically, 13.4% of the IP was climatically suitable, mainly in mountain areas. Under SSP3-7.0, suitable areas are projected to decline by 74.2% (2041?2060) and 99.3% (2081?2100); under SSP5-8.5, by 75.5% and 99.9%, respectively. While small gains may occur in the Pyrenees, most conservation protected areas (Natura 2000, RAMSAR) may lose suitability for species persistence. Such losses could disrupt ecological ecosystems and directly threaten the survival of P. alcon. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed land-use planning and effective habitat conservation.
pdf:docinfo:creator: Teresa R. Freitas, Sílvia Martins, Joaquim Jesus, João Campos, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, Ernestino Maravalhas, Helder Fraga and João A. Santos
PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.141592653-2.6-1.40.25 (TeX Live 2023) kpathsea version 6.3.5
meta:author: Teresa R. Freitas, Sílvia Martins, Joaquim Jesus, João Campos, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, Ernestino Maravalhas, Helder Fraga and João A. Santos
trapped: False
meta:creation-date: 2025-09-12T15:31:06Z
created: 2025-09-12T15:31:06Z
access_permission:extract_for_accessibility: true
Creation-Date: 2025-09-12T15:31:06Z
Author: Teresa R. Freitas, Sílvia Martins, Joaquim Jesus, João Campos, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, Ernestino Maravalhas, Helder Fraga and João A. Santos
producer: pdfTeX-1.40.25; modified using OpenPDF 1.4.2
pdf:docinfo:producer: pdfTeX-1.40.25; modified using OpenPDF 1.4.2
pdf:unmappedUnicodeCharsPerPage: 0
Keywords: future climate conditions; marsh gentian; species conservation; worldwide bioclimatic classification system
access_permission:modify_annotations: true
dc:creator: Teresa R. Freitas, Sílvia Martins, Joaquim Jesus, João Campos, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, Ernestino Maravalhas, Helder Fraga and João A. Santos
dcterms:created: 2025-09-12T15:31:06Z
Last-Modified: 2025-09-12T15:43:53Z
dcterms:modified: 2025-09-12T15:43:53Z
title: Bio-Ecological Indicators for Gentiana pneumonanthe L. Climatic Suitability in the Iberian Peninsula
Last-Save-Date: 2025-09-12T15:43:53Z
pdf:docinfo:keywords: future climate conditions; marsh gentian; species conservation; worldwide bioclimatic classification system
pdf:docinfo:modified: 2025-09-12T15:43:53Z
meta:save-date: 2025-09-12T15:43:53Z
pdf:docinfo:custom:PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.141592653-2.6-1.40.25 (TeX Live 2023) kpathsea version 6.3.5
Content-Type: application/pdf
X-Parsed-By: org.apache.tika.parser.DefaultParser
creator: Teresa R. Freitas, Sílvia Martins, Joaquim Jesus, João Campos, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, Ernestino Maravalhas, Helder Fraga and João A. Santos
dc:subject: future climate conditions; marsh gentian; species conservation; worldwide bioclimatic classification system
access_permission:assemble_document: true
xmpTPg:NPages: 23
pdf:charsPerPage: 3494
access_permission:extract_content: true
access_permission:can_print: true
pdf:docinfo:trapped: False
meta:keyword: future climate conditions; marsh gentian; species conservation; worldwide bioclimatic classification system
access_permission:can_modify: true
pdf:docinfo:created: 2025-09-12T15:31:06Z