date: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
pdf:PDFVersion: 1.5
pdf:docinfo:title: Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation
xmp:CreatorTool: LaTeX with hyperref package
access_permission:can_print_degraded: true
subject: Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments.
dc:format: application/pdf; version=1.5
pdf:docinfo:creator_tool: LaTeX with hyperref package
access_permission:fill_in_form: true
pdf:encrypted: false
dc:title: Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation
modified: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
cp:subject: Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments.
pdf:docinfo:subject: Convective scale processes and, therefore, thunderstorm-related hazards cannot be simulated using regional climate models with horizontal grid spacing in the order of 10 km. However, larger-scale environmental conditions of these local high-impact phenomena can be diagnosed to assess their frequency in current and future climates. In this study, we present a daytime climatology of severe thunderstorm environments and its evolution for a wide Euro-Mediterranean domain through the 21st century, using regional climate model simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Currently, severe convective weather is more frequently favored around Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Our results suggest that with a steady progress until the end of the century, Mediterranean coasts are projected to experience a significantly higher frequency of severe thunderstorm environments, while a slight decrease over parts of continental Europe is evaluated. The increase across the Mediterranean is mostly owed to the warming sea surface, which strengthens thermodynamic conditions in the wintertime, while local factors arguably keep the shear frequency relatively higher than the entire region. On the other hand, future northward extension of the subtropical belt over Europe in the warm season reduces the number of days with severe thunderstorm environments.
pdf:docinfo:creator: Abdullah Kahraman, Deniz Ural and Bar?? Önol
PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.14159265-2.6-1.40.18 (TeX Live 2017/W32TeX) kpathsea version 6.2.3
meta:author: Abdullah Kahraman, Deniz Ural and Bar?? Önol
trapped: False
meta:creation-date: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
created: Tue Aug 04 12:22:32 CEST 2020
access_permission:extract_for_accessibility: true
Creation-Date: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
Author: Abdullah Kahraman, Deniz Ural and Bar?? Önol
producer: pdfTeX-1.40.18
pdf:docinfo:producer: pdfTeX-1.40.18
Keywords: climate change; severe weather; thunderstorms; hail; tornadoes; Med-CORDEX; convective storms
access_permission:modify_annotations: true
dc:creator: Abdullah Kahraman, Deniz Ural and Bar?? Önol
dcterms:created: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
Last-Modified: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
dcterms:modified: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
title: Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation
Last-Save-Date: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
pdf:docinfo:keywords: climate change; severe weather; thunderstorms; hail; tornadoes; Med-CORDEX; convective storms
pdf:docinfo:modified: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
meta:save-date: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z
pdf:docinfo:custom:PTEX.Fullbanner: This is pdfTeX, Version 3.14159265-2.6-1.40.18 (TeX Live 2017/W32TeX) kpathsea version 6.2.3
Content-Type: application/pdf
X-Parsed-By: org.apache.tika.parser.DefaultParser
creator: Abdullah Kahraman, Deniz Ural and Bar?? Önol
dc:subject: climate change; severe weather; thunderstorms; hail; tornadoes; Med-CORDEX; convective storms
access_permission:assemble_document: true
xmpTPg:NPages: 18
access_permission:extract_content: true
access_permission:can_print: true
pdf:docinfo:trapped: False
meta:keyword: climate change; severe weather; thunderstorms; hail; tornadoes; Med-CORDEX; convective storms
access_permission:can_modify: true
pdf:docinfo:created: 2020-08-04T10:22:32Z