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  Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China

Liu, X., Liu, W., Yang, H., Tang, Q., Flörke, M., Masaki, Y., Müller Schmied, H., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Wada, Y. (2019): Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China. - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 3, 1245-1261.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019

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 Creators:
Liu, X.1, Author
Liu, W.1, Author
Yang, H.1, Author
Tang, Q.1, Author
Flörke, M.1, Author
Masaki, Y.1, Author
Müller Schmied, H.1, Author
Ostberg, Sebastian2, Author              
Pokhrel, Y.1, Author
Satoh, Y.1, Author
Wada, Y.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Human activities, as well as climate variability, have had increasing impacts on natural hydrological systems, particularly streamflow. However, quantitative assessments of these impacts are lacking on large scales. In this study, we use the simulations from six global hydrological models driven by three meteorological forcings to investigate direct human impact (DHI) and climate impact on streamflow in China. Results show that, in the sub-periods of 1971–1990 and 1991–2010, one-fifth to one-third of mean annual streamflow (MAF) was reduced due to DHI in northern basins, and much smaller (<4 %) MAF was reduced in southern basins. From 1971–1990 to 1991–2010, total MAF changes range from −13 % to 10 % across basins wherein the relative contributions of DHI change and climate variability show distinct spatial patterns. DHI change caused decreases in MAF in 70 % of river segments, but climate variability dominated the total MAF changes in 88 % of river segments of China. In most northern basins, climate variability results in changes of −9 % to 18 % in MAF, while DHI change results in decreases of 2 % to 8 % in MAF. In contrast with the climate variability that may increase or decrease streamflow, DHI change almost always contributes to decreases in MAF over time, with water withdrawals supposedly being the major impact on streamflow. This quantitative assessment can be a reference for attribution of streamflow changes at large scales, despite remaining uncertainty. We highlight the significant DHI in northern basins and the necessity to modulate DHI through improved water management towards a better adaptation to future climate change.

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 Dates: 2019
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
eDoc: 8874
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Attribution
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
Regional keyword: Asia
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Terrestrial Safe Operating Space
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
 Degree: -

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Title: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 23 (3) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1245 - 1261 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals208