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  Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

Xoplaki, E., Ellsäßer, F., Grieger, J., Nissen, K. M., Pinto, J. G., Augenstein, M., Chen, T.-C., Feldmann, H., Friederichs, P., Gliksman, D., Goulier, L., Haustein, K., Heinke, J., Jach, L., Knutzen, F., Kollet, S., Luterbacher, J., Luther, N., Mohr, S., Mudersbach, C., Müller, C., Rousi, E., Simon, F., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Szemkus, S., Vallejo-Bernal, S. M., Vlachopoulos, O., Wolf, F. (2025): Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies. - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25, 2, 541-564.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025

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 Urheber:
Xoplaki, Elena1, Autor
Ellsäßer, Florian1, Autor
Grieger, Jens1, Autor
Nissen, Katrin M.1, Autor
Pinto, Joaquim G.1, Autor
Augenstein, Markus1, Autor
Chen, Ting-Chen1, Autor
Feldmann, Hendrik1, Autor
Friederichs, Petra1, Autor
Gliksman, Daniel1, Autor
Goulier, Laura1, Autor
Haustein, Karsten1, Autor
Heinke, Jens2, Autor              
Jach, Lisa1, Autor
Knutzen, Florian1, Autor
Kollet, Stefan1, Autor
Luterbacher, Jürg1, Autor
Luther, Niklas1, Autor
Mohr, Susanna1, Autor
Mudersbach, Christoph1, Autor
Müller, Christoph2, Autor              Rousi, Efi1, AutorSimon, Felix1, AutorSuarez-Gutierrez, Laura1, AutorSzemkus, Svenja1, AutorVallejo-Bernal, Sara M.1, AutorVlachopoulos, Odysseas1, AutorWolf, Frederik1, Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.

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Sprache(n): eng - Englisch
 Datum: 2023-07-152024-11-102025-02-072025-02-07
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
 Seiten: 24
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Biosphere Dynamics
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Regional keyword: Germany
Research topic keyword: Forest
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Freshwater
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Model / method: LPJmL
OATYPE: Gold Open Access
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 25 (2) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 541 - 564 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals352
Publisher: Copernicus