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Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

Urheber*innen

Xoplaki,  Elena
External Organizations;

Ellsäßer,  Florian
External Organizations;

Grieger,  Jens
External Organizations;

Nissen,  Katrin M.
External Organizations;

Pinto,  Joaquim G.
External Organizations;

Augenstein,  Markus
External Organizations;

Chen,  Ting-Chen
External Organizations;

Feldmann,  Hendrik
External Organizations;

Friederichs,  Petra
External Organizations;

Gliksman,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Goulier,  Laura
External Organizations;

Haustein,  Karsten
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jens.Heinke

Heinke,  Jens
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Jach,  Lisa
External Organizations;

Knutzen,  Florian
External Organizations;

Kollet,  Stefan
External Organizations;

Luterbacher,  Jürg
External Organizations;

Luther,  Niklas
External Organizations;

Mohr,  Susanna
External Organizations;

Mudersbach,  Christoph
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rousi,  Efi
External Organizations;

Simon,  Felix
External Organizations;

Suarez-Gutierrez,  Laura
External Organizations;

Szemkus,  Svenja
External Organizations;

Vallejo-Bernal,  Sara M.
External Organizations;

Vlachopoulos,  Odysseas
External Organizations;

Wolf,  Frederik
External Organizations;

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Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

nhess-25-541-2025.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 10MB

Ergänzendes Material (frei zugänglich)
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Zitation

Xoplaki, E., Ellsäßer, F., Grieger, J., Nissen, K. M., Pinto, J. G., Augenstein, M., Chen, T.-C., Feldmann, H., Friederichs, P., Gliksman, D., Goulier, L., Haustein, K., Heinke, J., Jach, L., Knutzen, F., Kollet, S., Luterbacher, J., Luther, N., Mohr, S., Mudersbach, C., Müller, C., Rousi, E., Simon, F., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Szemkus, S., Vallejo-Bernal, S. M., Vlachopoulos, O., Wolf, F. (2025): Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies. - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25, 2, 541-564.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_31925
Zusammenfassung
Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.