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  Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress

Grassi, G., Stehfest, E., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D., Cescatti, A., House, J., Nabuurs, G.-J., Rossi, S., Alkama, R., Viñas, R. A., Calvin, K., Ceccherini, G., Federici, S., Fujimori, S., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Korosuo, A., Perugini, L., Tubiello, F. N., Popp, A. (2021): Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 5, 425-434.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6

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Grassi, Giacomo1, Autor
Stehfest, Elke1, Autor
Rogelj, Joeri1, Autor
van Vuuren, Detlef1, Autor
Cescatti, Alessandro1, Autor
House, Jo1, Autor
Nabuurs, Gert-Jan1, Autor
Rossi, Simone1, Autor
Alkama, Ramdane1, Autor
Viñas, Raúl Abad1, Autor
Calvin, Katherine1, Autor
Ceccherini, Guido1, Autor
Federici, Sandro1, Autor
Fujimori, Shinichiro1, Autor
Gusti, Mykola1, Autor
Hasegawa, Tomoko1, Autor
Havlik, Petr1, Autor
Humpenöder, Florian2, Autor              
Korosuo, Anu1, Autor
Perugini, Lucia1, Autor
Tubiello, Francesco N.1, AutorPopp, Alexander2, Autor               mehr..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Zusammenfassung: Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of ~5.5 GtCO2 yr−1 exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries’ GHG inventories. Here we present a ‘Rosetta stone’ adjustment to translate IAMs’ land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 °C limits are reduced by 120–192 GtCO2 relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.

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 Datum: 2021-04-262021-05
 Publikationsstatus: Final veröffentlicht
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 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Nature Climate Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 11 (5) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 425 - 434 Identifikator: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414
Publisher: Nature