Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ 
climate progress

Grassi, Giacomo; Stehfest, Elke; Rogelj, Joeri; van Vuuren, Detlef; Cescatti, Alessandro; House, Jo; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Rossi, Simone; Alkama, Ramdane; Viñas, Raúl Abad; Calvin, Katherine; Ceccherini, Guido; Federici, Sandro; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gusti, Mykola; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Korosuo, Anu; Perugini, Lucia; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Popp, Alexander

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6

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Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress

Urheber*innen

Grassi, Giacomo
External Organizations;

Stehfest, Elke
External Organizations;

Rogelj, Joeri
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

Cescatti, Alessandro
External Organizations;

House, Jo
External Organizations;

Nabuurs, Gert-Jan
External Organizations;

Rossi, Simone
External Organizations;

Alkama, Ramdane
External Organizations;

Viñas, Raúl Abad
External Organizations;

Calvin, Katherine
External Organizations;

Ceccherini, Guido
External Organizations;

Federici, Sandro
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Gusti, Mykola
External Organizations;

Hasegawa, Tomoko
External Organizations;

Havlik, Petr
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Korosuo, Anu
External Organizations;

Perugini, Lucia
External Organizations;

Tubiello, Francesco N.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Zitation

Grassi, G., Stehfest, E., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D., Cescatti, A., House, J., Nabuurs, G.-J., Rossi, S., Alkama, R., Viñas, R. A., Calvin, K., Ceccherini, G., Federici, S., Fujimori, S., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Korosuo, A., Perugini, L., Tubiello, F. N., Popp, A. (2021): Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 5, 425-434.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_26654

Zusammenfassung

Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of ~5.5 GtCO2 yr−1 exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries’ GHG inventories. Here we present a ‘Rosetta stone’ adjustment to translate IAMs’ land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 °C limits are reduced by 120–192 GtCO2 relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.