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  Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress

Grassi, G., Stehfest, E., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D., Cescatti, A., House, J., Nabuurs, G.-J., Rossi, S., Alkama, R., Viñas, R. A., Calvin, K., Ceccherini, G., Federici, S., Fujimori, S., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Korosuo, A., Perugini, L., Tubiello, F. N., Popp, A. (2021): Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 5, 425-434.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6

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 Creators:
Grassi, Giacomo1, Author
Stehfest, Elke1, Author
Rogelj, Joeri1, Author
van Vuuren, Detlef1, Author
Cescatti, Alessandro1, Author
House, Jo1, Author
Nabuurs, Gert-Jan1, Author
Rossi, Simone1, Author
Alkama, Ramdane1, Author
Viñas, Raúl Abad1, Author
Calvin, Katherine1, Author
Ceccherini, Guido1, Author
Federici, Sandro1, Author
Fujimori, Shinichiro1, Author
Gusti, Mykola1, Author
Hasegawa, Tomoko1, Author
Havlik, Petr1, Author
Humpenöder, Florian2, Author              
Korosuo, Anu1, Author
Perugini, Lucia1, Author
Tubiello, Francesco N.1, AuthorPopp, Alexander2, Author               more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of ~5.5 GtCO2 yr−1 exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries’ GHG inventories. Here we present a ‘Rosetta stone’ adjustment to translate IAMs’ land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 °C limits are reduced by 120–192 GtCO2 relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.

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 Dates: 2021-04-262021-05
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: No data to archive
Working Group: Land-Use Management
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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (5) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 425 - 434 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414
Publisher: Nature