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  Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S. A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Krey, V., Oshiro, K., Nogueira, L. P., Paroussos, L., Piontek, F., Riahi, K., Rochedo, P. R. R., Schaeffer, R., Takakura, J., van der Wijst, K.-I., van der Zwaan, B., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Zakeri, B., Tavoni, M. (2021): Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change. - Nature Climate Change, 11, 12, 1070-1076.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z

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 Creators:
Drouet, Laurent1, Author
Bosetti, Valentina1, Author
Padoan, Simone A.1, Author
Aleluia Reis, Lara1, Author
Bertram, Christoph2, Author              
Dalla Longa, Francesco1, Author
Després, Jacques1, Author
Emmerling, Johannes1, Author
Fosse, Florian1, Author
Fragkiadakis, Kostas1, Author
Frank, Stefan1, Author
Fricko, Oliver1, Author
Fujimori, Shinichiro1, Author
Harmsen, Mathijs1, Author
Krey, Volker1, Author
Oshiro, Ken1, Author
Nogueira, Larissa P.1, Author
Paroussos, Leonidas1, Author
Piontek, Franziska2, Author              
Riahi, Keywan1, Author
Rochedo, Pedro R. R.1, AuthorSchaeffer, Roberto1, AuthorTakakura, Jun’ya1, Authorvan der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar1, Authorvan der Zwaan, Bob1, Authorvan Vuuren, Detlef1, AuthorVrontisi, Zoi1, AuthorWeitzel, Matthias1, AuthorZakeri, Behnam1, AuthorTavoni, Massimo1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

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 Dates: 2021-10-102021-11-292021-11-29
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Research topic keyword: 1.5/2°C limit
Research topic keyword: Climate Policy
Research topic keyword: Mitigation
Research topic keyword: Economics
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: MAgPIE
Model / method: REMIND
Model / method: Model Intercomparison
MDB-ID: yes - 3267
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1070 - 1076 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/140414
Publisher: Nature