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  Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

Brovkin, V., Brook, E., Williams, J. W., Bathiany, S., Lenton, T. M., Barton, M., DeConto, R. M., Donges, J. F., Ganopolski, A., McManus, J., Praetorius, S., de Vernal, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Cheng, H., Claussen, M., Crucifix, M., Gallopin, G., Iglesias, V., Kaufman, D. S., Kleinen, T., Lambert, F., van der Leeuw, S., Liddy, H., Loutre, M.-F., McGee, D., Rehfeld, K., Rhodes, R., Seddon, A. W. R., Trauth, M. H., Vanderveken, L., Yu, Z. (2021): Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system. - Nature Geoscience, 14, 8, 550-558.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5

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 Creators:
Brovkin, V.1, Author
Brook, Edward1, Author
Williams, John W.1, Author
Bathiany, Sebastian 1, Author
Lenton, Timothy M.1, Author
Barton, Michael1, Author
DeConto, Robert M.1, Author
Donges, Jonathan Friedemann2, Author              
Ganopolski, Andrey2, Author              
McManus, Jerry1, Author
Praetorius, Summer1, Author
de Vernal, Anne1, Author
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako1, Author
Cheng, Hai1, Author
Claussen, Martin1, Author
Crucifix, Michel1, Author
Gallopin, Gilberto1, Author
Iglesias, Virginia1, Author
Kaufman, Darrell S.1, Author
Kleinen, Thomas1, Author
Lambert, Fabrice1, Authorvan der Leeuw, Sander1, AuthorLiddy, Hannah1, AuthorLoutre, Marie-France1, AuthorMcGee, David1, AuthorRehfeld, Kira1, AuthorRhodes, Rachael1, AuthorSeddon, Alistair W. R.1, AuthorTrauth, Martin H.1, AuthorVanderveken, Lilian1, AuthorYu, Zicheng1, Author more..
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-06-042021-07-292021-08-02
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Whole Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: FutureLab - Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene
Working Group: Long-Term Dynamics of the Earth System
Research topic keyword: Tipping Elements
Research topic keyword: Paleoclimate
Research topic keyword: Nonlinear Dynamics
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: Nonlinear Data Analysis
MDB-ID: No data to archive
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
OATYPE: Green Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Nature Geoscience
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 (8) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 550 - 558 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals355
Publisher: Nature