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  Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Horton, B. P., Khan, N. S., Cahill, N., Lee, J. S. H., Shaw, T. A., Garner, A. J., Kemp, A. C., Engelhart, S. E., Rahmstorf, S. (2020): Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey. - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 18.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5

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 Creators:
Horton, Benjamin P.1, Author
Khan, Nicole S.1, Author
Cahill, Niamh1, Author
Lee, Janice S. H.1, Author
Shaw, Timothy A.1, Author
Garner, Andra J.1, Author
Kemp, Andrew C.1, Author
Engelhart, Simon E.1, Author
Rahmstorf, Stefan2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

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 Dates: 2020-05-082020-05-08
 Publication Status: Finally published
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 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
MDB-ID: Entry suspended
PIKDOMAIN: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Research topic keyword: Sea-level Rise
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
Research topic keyword: Climate impacts
Research topic keyword: Oceans
Regional keyword: Global
 Degree: -

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Title: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, oa
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 3 Sequence Number: 18 Start / End Page: - Identifier: Publisher: Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR)
Other: 2397-3722
CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/npj-climate-atmospheric-science
Publisher: Nature