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  Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change

Minoli, S., Jägermeyr, J., Asseng, S., Urfels, A., & Müller, C. (2022). Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change. Nature Communications, 13:. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-34411-5.

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資料種別: 学術論文

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27485oa.pdf (出版社版), 3MB
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27485oa.pdf
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application/pdf / [MD5]
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 作成者:
Minoli, Sara1, 著者              
Jägermeyr, Jonas1, 著者              
Asseng, Senthold2, 著者
Urfels, Anton2, 著者
Müller, Christoph1, 著者              
所属:
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              

内容説明

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 要旨: Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers’ decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes >30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes <30°N-S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.

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言語: eng - 英語
 日付: 2022-10-252022-11-182022-11-18
 出版の状態: Finally published
 ページ: 10
 出版情報: -
 目次: -
 査読: 査読あり
 識別子(DOI, ISBNなど): MDB-ID: yes - 3369
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
OATYPE: Gold - DEAL Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34411-5
 学位: -

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Project name : Gefördert im Rahmen des Förderprogramms "Open Access Publikationskosten" durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Projektnummer 491075472
Grant ID : -
Funding program : Open-Access-Publikationskosten (491075472)
Funding organization : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

出版物 1

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出版物名: Nature Communications
種別: 学術雑誌, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
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出版社, 出版地: -
ページ: - 巻号: 13 通巻号: 7079 開始・終了ページ: - 識別子(ISBN, ISSN, DOIなど): CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals354
Publisher: Nature