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  Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

Duan, H., Zhou, S., Jiang, K., Bertram, C., Harmsen, M., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Wang, S., Fujimori, S., Tavoni, M., Ming, X., Keramidas, K., Iyer, G., Edmonds, J. (2021): Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit. - Science, 372, 6540, 378-385.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767

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 Creators:
Duan, Hongbo1, Author
Zhou, Sheng1, Author
Jiang, Kejun1, Author
Bertram, Christoph2, Author              
Harmsen, Mathijs1, Author
Kriegler, Elmar2, Author              
van Vuuren, Detlef P.1, Author
Wang, Shouyang1, Author
Fujimori, Shinichiro1, Author
Tavoni, Massimo1, Author
Ming, Xi1, Author
Keramidas, Kimon1, Author
Iyer, Gokul1, Author
Edmonds, James1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the “no policy” case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.

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 Dates: 2021-04
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1126/science.aba8767
PIKDOMAIN: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
Organisational keyword: RD3 - Transformation Pathways
MDB-ID: yes - 3341
 Degree: -

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Title: Science
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 372 (6540) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 378 - 385 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals442
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)