English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
 
 
DownloadE-Mail
  Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification

Mann, M. E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B. A., Miller, S. K., Petri, S., Coumou, D. (2018): Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification. - Science Advances, 4, 10, eaat3272.
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272

Item is

Files

show Files
hide Files
:
8185oa.pdf (Publisher version), 8MB
Name:
8185oa.pdf
Description:
-
Visibility:
Public
MIME-Type / Checksum:
application/pdf / [MD5]
Technical Metadata:
Copyright Date:
-
Copyright Info:
-

Locators

show

Creators

show
hide
 Creators:
Mann, M. E.1, Author
Rahmstorf, Stefan2, Author              
Kornhuber, Kai2, Author              
Steinman, B. A.1, Author
Miller, S. K.1, Author
Petri, Stefan2, Author              
Coumou, Dim2, Author              
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

Content

show
hide
Free keywords: -
 Abstract: Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by ~50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.

Details

show
hide
Language(s):
 Dates: 2018
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat3272
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 8185
Research topic keyword: Extremes
Research topic keyword: Weather
Organisational keyword: RD1 - Earth System Analysis
Working Group: Earth System Model Development
Working Group: Earth System Modes of Operation
 Degree: -

Event

show

Legal Case

show

Project information

show

Source 1

show
hide
Title: Science Advances
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
 Creator(s):
Affiliations:
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 4 (10) Sequence Number: eaat3272 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/161027