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  Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change

Franke, J. A., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Gardner, C., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Jägermeyr, J., Jones, C. D., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T. A., Ruane, A. C., Stephens, H., Zabel, F., Moyer, E. J. (2022): Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. - Global Change Biology, 28, 1, 167-181.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15868

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 Creators:
Franke, James A.1, Author
Müller, Christoph2, Author              
Minoli, Sara2, Author              
Elliott, Joshua1, Author
Folberth, Christian1, Author
Gardner, Charles1, Author
Hank, Tobias1, Author
Izaurralde, R. Cezar1, Author
Jägermeyr, Jonas2, Author              
Jones, Curstis D.1, Author
Liu, Wenfeng1, Author
Olin, Stefan1, Author
Pugh, Thomas A.M.1, Author
Ruane, Alex C.1, Author
Stephens, Haynes1, Author
Zabel, Florian1, Author
Moyer, Elisabeth J.1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              

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 Abstract: Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets.” A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2021-08-302021-09-032022-01
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: 15
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: MDB-ID: yes - 3224
PIKDOMAIN: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Organisational keyword: RD2 - Climate Resilience
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Research topic keyword: Adaptation
Research topic keyword: Food & Agriculture
Research topic keyword: Land use
Regional keyword: Global
Model / method: LPJmL
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15868
OATYPE: Green Open Access
 Degree: -

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Title: Global Change Biology
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 28 (1) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 167 - 181 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals192
Publisher: Wiley